Turkey in International Media
The world celebrates Turkish democracy but worries about its economy
14.06.2015
Turkey votes down AKP
After the loss of AK Party’s parliamentary majority in Sunday’s vote, President Erdoğan issued a short statement to acknowledge that “the results do not give the opportunity to any party to form a single-party government.” Protocol demands he give the mandate to form a government to AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu, who then has 45 days to find a coalition partner. If the parties fail to form a government within this period, the president can call for another election.
Even though all opposition parties expressed their reluctance to join a coalition with AK Party, Sinan Ülgen, head of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, doesn’t consider new elections to be the likely option. After 13 years out of power opposition parties long to be part of government, he says. In spite of the ultranationalist party’s (MHP) hostility towards Kurdish issues most papers expect an AK-MHP alliance to be the most probable outcome. Such a conservative nationalist alliance would imperil Turkey’s process in advancing the rights of minorities, the New York Times warns.
AKP forming a coalition with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) or with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is seen as unlikely. Nor do commentators predict a tripartite alliance between the opposition parties. Another possibility for AK-Party would be a minority administration forming ad hoc alliances to win votes on specific topics. Even assuming they could win a vote of confidence such a government would be short term at best.
Media declare AKP’s decline a victory for democracy.
Many newspapers proclaimed the end of Erdoğan’s autocratic rule and the fulfilment of the legacy of Gezi Park. With 41 per cent of the vote, AKP won an estimated 258 seats compared to the 327 seats it had in previous parliament. The result marks the end of a 13 years period of single-party rule.
International opinion is that the AKP lost ground because of Erdoğan’s drive to consolidate autocratic power. Having served three terms as prime minister before being elected president last year he successively captured the military, the judiciary, and the media to establish himself as Turkey’s paramount leader. On his rise to power Erdoğan must have lost track of the need to address the conservative rural population, the Kurdish Opening, or how to modernise Turkey through rapprochement with the EU, Süddeutsche Zeitung supposes. In order to defeat political rivals, like the exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen and silence critical voices, he censored the internet, blocked social media and intimidated legacy media editors. Denialist rhetoric on Kurdish issues cost AKP the votes of pious Kurds, says columnist Yavuz Baydar.
However, not everyone is prepared to write off Erdoğan. Michael Koplow in Foreign Affairs argues that an AKP minority government or a coalition will make the parliament even less able to protect its prerogatives from a “power-hungry president”.
Only 13 per cent of the vote, but HDP and its co-leader Demirtaş celebrate as if they had won.
Running as a party in legislative elections for the first time, pro-Kurdish HDP managed to overcome the 10 per cent threshold to enter parliament. Formed in 2012 of smaller political groups in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast HDP is the first Kurdish nationalist party to enter parliament standing on its own. The pro-Kurdish party “closed the door on dictatorship” by stopping Erdoğan’s AKP from achieving a majority to change the constitution, said co-leader Demirtaş in an interview on Monday night.
Demirtaş, 42, a former human rights activist has broadened the party’s appeal reaching out to non-Kurdish minority groups transforming the party into an umbrella group for progressive Turks concerned with issues like women and LGBT rights. Dubbed the “Kurdish Obama” for his statesman-like response to the deadly bomb attack on an HDP rally, Demirtaş in his “peace will win”-tweet (#Barışkazanacak) asked his supporters not to head the streets. The young charismatic co-chair only increased his support by showing equanimity and good humour in the face of Erdoğan’s fierce campaign attacks insulting him as “little boy”, “pop star” or “infidel”.
Uncertain political situation in Turkey makes the lira fall to all-time low.
AKP’s loss of its majority in parliament leaves the country without clear perspectives about the new government. This political uncertainty initially led the lira to tumble 3.8 per cent to 2.762 per dollar, while Turkey’s main stock index dropped 6 per cent, the most in two years. The prospect of a minority government or a repeat election made Turkey’s five-year credit-default swap, a measure to determine the country’s debt risk, climb 13 basis points.
Turkey was already beginning to lose its attractiveness for foreign direct investment due to regional insecurity and a slowing economic growth. The election’s inconclusive outcome exacerbates investors’ fear of economic instability and the Turkish market is unlikely to settle soon, warns Lubomir Mitov of UniCredit.