Bursa’s 2050 plan

The Bursa Metropolitan Municipality has announced that it will soon finalize a 25-year Environmental Master Plan, a project aimed at shaping the city’s future. Developed at a 1/100,000 scale, this ambitious plan is the result of collaboration among 12 universities and 32 experts, standing as one of the few long-term urban planning projections in existence. In parallel, the municipality is engaging with various local stakeholders, and it has established a dedicated agency, ‘Bursa Plan’, to oversee the plan’s design and coordination.

Urban planning in Turkey is influenced by numerous factors. New housing developments on city outskirts and urban transformation initiatives often prioritize infrastructure and road construction. Meanwhile, political interventions in areas lacking legal status have frequently disrupted planning efforts, especially in larger cities where effective coordination across multiple districts is crucial.

To ensure the success of Bursa’s forthcoming Environmental Master Plan, several conditions must be met. Does the plan adequately address the city’s fundamental challenges? Is it primarily focused on infrastructure and construction, or does it offer an innovative, sustainable vision that will propel Bursa into the 2040s? Does it provide concrete solutions to entrenched issues such as pollution and waste management? And finally, is its approach robust enough to contend with the increasingly pronounced impacts of climate change in the 2030s and 2040s?

Why was a new plan necessary?

Following the local elections in March 2024, the Bursa Metropolitan Municipality embarked on a thorough planning initiative. In August 2024, Mustafa Bozbey, the newly elected mayor, announced preparations for a comprehensive Environmental Master Plan and the launch of Bursa Plan, and said, “We are opening a new chapter for a planned Bursa.” Widely regarded as the “city’s constitution” by professionals working on urban issues, this plan marks a pivotal moment in Bursa’s urban development.

“We must assess how much of the plan approved in 1998 has actually been implemented; nearly 30 years have passed.”

Uluay Koçak Güvener, General Coordinator of Bursa Plan, and an architect, revealed that a team of 41 specialists –including urban planners, architects, landscape architects, and environmental engineers– are collaborating on the project. Their work is organized into 15 sectors, each addressing critical questions to gather concrete insights for the plan. She said that key issues under examination include the region’s natural structure, rural landscape, and agricultural status; the identification of geological faults and potential liquefaction zones; the locations of lakes and rivers; as well as the state of infrastructure, industry, and commerce. The findings, contributed by 32 academics from 15 universities, will be meticulously analyzed and integrated into the final document.

Güvener noted that the projection year for the current 1/100,000-scale Environmental Regulation Plan for Bursa ended in 2020. “Since the plan must be updated for a new projection year, we have initiated a new 1/100,000-scale study to envision Bursa in 2050,” she explained. When I mentioned the five-year gap since the previous plan, she acknowledged, “It would have been preferable to have initiated this process earlier so that more targeted projects could have commenced sooner. However, we must assess how much of the plan approved in 1998 has actually been implemented; nearly 30 years have passed.” She emphasized that crafting a plan for a 25-year horizon, amidst numerous variables, necessitates extensive preparatory work and robust analysis.

“For example, a district municipality can reclassify an agricultural area as industrial. Such changes violate the overarching plan, and if challenged in court, they would likely be overturned.”

Güvener also underscored the importance of public participation. In addition to consultations with local mukhtars in Bursa, workshops have been held with mukhtars from both densely populated towns close to Bursa  –such as Mustafakemalpaşa, İnegöl, and Gemlik– and more rural areas like Büyükorhan, Keles, and Orhaneli. To date, half of Bursa’s 1,060 mukhtars have been interviewed, with most expressing concerns over infrastructure, transportation, and construction. Moreover, Bursa Plan officials are engaging with NGOs, professional chambers, and other institutions, and household surveys are planned. Finally, studies on population and migration trends are also underway, ensuring that the Environmental Master Plan addresses the multifaceted challenges of the city’s future.

“Master Plan violations are tantamount to crimes against the constitution”

Can a comprehensive Environmental Master Plan truly avert slapdash, haphazard urban growth? Caner Gökbayrak, a member of the Bursa Water Collective –one of the city’s most important and active civil society organizations– argued that violations of the plan should be met with far harsher penalties. “Environmental master plans detailed can include plan notes and sheets that delineate industrial, tourism, and agricultural zones within the city, thereby preventing illegal construction,” explained Gökbayrak. He said that such plans are vital for controlling pollution in water streams and the air, helping to restore a more orderly, sustainable urban structure. He insisted that the plan’s effectiveness hinges on rigorous legal oversight: “I believe the Environmental Plan should be enforced as stringently as a crime against the constitution, which our laws classify as the gravest offenses.”

Uludağ Organized Industrial Zone in Bursa’s suburban Kestel area. Photo courtesy of Bursa Water Collective

Gökbayrak noted that, despite the criminalization of every action contravening the Environmental Master Plan, the past 22 years have witnessed rampant irregularities due to lax planning. According to a city planner acquaintance of Gökbayrak, 3,360 plan amendments were made over a three-and-a-half-year period. Most of these involved small-scale plans –at 5,000 and 1,000 scales – because amendments to 100,000-scale plans require approval from the Metropolitan Municipality’s Assembly, while district municipalities can alter smaller-scale plans. “For example, a district municipality can reclassify an agricultural area as industrial. Such changes violate the overarching plan, and if challenged in court, they would likely be overturned. Yet, in the absence of lawsuits, each amendment spawns further irregularities,” Gökbayrak lamented.

Gökbayrak highlighted that unless changes conflicting with the master plan are halted, Turkey’s environmental plans will remain ineffective. Nevertheless, he said having witnessed instances where litigation successfully annulled such amendments on the grounds of their inconsistency with the master plan.

“We must abandon this negligence and eliminate all waste, whether domestic, industrial, or agricultural.”

A key factor undermining the effectiveness of these plans is the amnesty for construction violations. Gökbayrak explained that the 2018 construction amnesty permitted numerous illegal structures to acquire legal status in exchange for modest fees, thereby hampering efforts to monitor infractions such as land fragmentation, agricultural pollution, and makeshift sewage disposal. “This is where the problems begin,” he remarked. Between 2019 and 2024, the collective monitored construction activities on the Bursa Plain –from Kestel in the east to Nilüfer in the west, encompassing the Nilüfer River and its tributaries. By analyzing satellite imagery over a one-year period, they observed that areas once characterized by lush, open fields had been rapidly transformed by construction. The amnesty catalyzed the emergence of many buildings within a single year, enabling the Bursa Water Collective to precisely document how this policy boosted illegal construction.

Caner Gökbayrak

Gökbayrak further outlined that two institutions are responsible for overseeing illegal construction: the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, and the Metropolitan Municipality. When the collective shared its findings with the Bursa Metropolitan Municipality, they were told that although the municipality was aware of the illegal construction, it was powerless to intervene. “They did not explain how they were unable to act. We received no satisfactory response,” Gökbayrak said, adding that they are preparing to present their findings to the governorship. “Creating a plan is undoubtedly essential. A 1/100,000-scale plan must be developed. However, whether implemented before or after the plan’s adoption, it is imperative to conduct a study to halt the ongoing violations of agricultural areas and the Bursa Plain,” he said.

Industrial Waste: “We can’t change the climate, but we can reduce contamination”

One of Bursa’s most critical environmental challenges is the pollution of the Nilüfer River and the Marmara Sea. Waste discharged into the Nilüfer River –one of the city’s principal potable water sources – jeopardizes public health and inflicts severe ecological damage. Similarly, the uncontrolled release of domestic, industrial, and agricultural waste into the Marmara Sea further exacerbates pollution levels. Professor Mustafa Sarı of Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University explained that such waste increases the nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Marmara Sea, and when combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, this may trigger the formation of mucilage. Also known as “sea snot,” the phenomenon of mucilage captured public attention when it abruptly blanketed the surface of the Marmara Sea around Istanbul’s southern coasts in May 2021.

Sarı emphasized that only 30 percent of industrial waste is treated, while the remaining 70 percent is discharged untreated into the Marmara Sea and its tributaries. Regarding mucilage formation, he said: “When we consider the three triggers, two are beyond our control: we cannot alter the climate, nor can we change sea water temperatures. Additionally, the inherent structure of the Marmara Sea remains immutable. Thus, our sole controllable variable is reducing its pollution load.” He noted that after the significant outbreak occurred in 2021, mucilage has begun to reappear as of October 2024, underscoring the ongoing severity of pollution in Bursa.

The Nilüfer Dam has been critically impacted by drought, with its water level dropping to just 2 per cent by November 2024. Photo: Ayşegül Erkaya Arslan

Sarı also identified industrial activity as a major contributor to the pollution in the Nilüfer River. “My proposal is simple,” he said. “Anyone who claims ‘there is no pollution’ should join me for a walk along the Nilüfer River. I will put on my chest waders and equip myself with measurement devices. Wherever we detect changes in oxygen levels, we will search for and pinpoint the sources of pollution.” He is unequivocal that it is clear who are responsible for contaminating this vital water source: “For the past 50 years, cities bordering the Marmara Sea have treated it as a dumping ground. Although treatment plants have been constructed, and some function quite effectively, we must abandon this negligence and eliminate all waste, whether domestic, industrial, or agricultural.”

Echoing the sentiments of Caner Gökbayrak of the Bursa Water Collective, Sarı believes that only strict enforcement of environmental laws can resolve these issues. “Local authorities, central government, and the private sector must all demonstrate unwavering commitment,” he insisted. “We will enforce the laws, intensify our oversight, and ensure that no one is allowed to pollute our streams and seas.”

Professor Mustafa Sarı previously explained the recurrence of mucilage in the Marmara Sea in the video report “What Happened to Marmara?” produced for P24’s Gezegen. Image: Mustafa Ünlü.

Gökbayrak expressed cautious optimism regarding an upcoming workshop organized by the Bursa Metropolitan Municipality, intended to gather informed suggestions from stakeholders. “The workshop must include institutions that are genuinely involved and well-versed in these issues,” he said. “If input is sought from those less connected, a written contribution would suffice.” Gökbayrak advocated for a comprehensive study led by experts, emphasizing that these workshops should extend over several weeks rather than being compressed into a few hours, to produce concrete outcomes. He said that only adopting such approach can yield a substantive contribution to the Environmental Master Plan, rather than a mere token gesture.

Does the plan offer a vision for the 2040s?

Climate science has advanced significantly since Bursa’s previous Environmental Master Plan was prepared in 1998. Today, many cities are setting net-zero targets to reduce emissions and are designing their plans with a strong emphasis on decarbonization and energy efficiency. Under the European Union’s “Net Zero Cities” initiative, 112 cities from 35 countries –including Istanbul and Izmir– have pledged to achieve “climate neutrality” and meet “smart city” standards by 2030. These cities are at various stages of progress, with Malmö, Sweden’s third-largest city, serving as a pilot model through its comprehensive roadmaps.

“Several strategies will be devised for greenhouse gas emissions from industry, mining, heating, and transportation. Pollutant emissions are considered a critical factor in the planning and management of industrial areas.”

“Climate neutrality” refers to a city’s ability to balance its emissions with measures that eliminate them. Achieving this objective involves investments in carbon-free energy, maximizing energy efficiency in transportation and heating systems, and implementing effective waste management strategies. In essence, these efforts shape both the urban infrastructure and the overall planning of the city.

In a written response received from the Bursa Metropolitan Municipality on March 24 regarding the new Environmental Master Plan, key initiatives to reduce emissions and pollution were outlined. The statement indicated that, following the collection of essential data, areas with high climate sensitivity would be analyzed to formulate proposals for reducing carbon footprints across various sectors. The municipality noted, “This study will indirectly contribute to Bursa’s goal of becoming a climate-neutral city.” Moreover, it was stated that analyses of carbon emissions and energy consumption would be conducted through the “Energy Infrastructure and Renewable Energy” working group, with evaluations segmented by city district and industrial sector.

Bursa Plan was founded in 2024. Photo: Ayşegül Erkaya Arslan

The municipality also underscored the development of strategies to protect air quality, improve water management, enhance waste management, and strengthen ecosystem services, embracing a holistic view of the relationship between environmental pollution and sustainability. The statement said: “Several strategies will be devised for greenhouse gas emissions from industry, mining, heating, and transportation. Pollutant emissions are considered a critical factor in the planning and management of industrial areas –whether in organized industrial zones or dispersed enterprises– taking into account both Environmental Impact Assessments and current air pollution levels.”

One of the strategies identified in the environmental impact assessment to mitigate air pollution is to enhance traffic planning in Bursa. The municipality has committed to developing an action plan in the near future and to expanding clean mass transportation options.

Aligned with its climate-neutral agenda, the municipality aims to expand green infrastructure and bolster natural carbon sinks, such as urban forests, green roofs, and vertical gardens, to combat air pollution and curb urban heat. Regarding energy efficiency in buildings, the statement said: “To minimize the urban heat island effect, we will promote energy-efficient passive design techniques and the use of low-carbon building materials. Additionally, the adoption of renewable energy sources such as bioenergy, hydrogen, and solar power will be encouraged citywide.”

Orhaneli Energy Plant. Photo courtesy of Bursa Water Collective

Nature-based solutions are also on the agenda to safeguard water resources and bolster disaster resilience. “Nature-based solutions to reduce flood risk will be proposed by safeguarding stream beds and floodplains. We will enhance water efficiency across the city by developing smart water management systems to prevent network losses, and closed-loop water systems will be recommended for industrial facilities,” the statement said.

In tandem with efforts to expand carbon sink capacity, the soil pollution and green space management strategy includes creating soil pollution maps to identify sensitive areas. Measures will be taken to promote sustainable agricultural practices, minimize the environmental impact of industrial agriculture, and expand natural habitats. The statement said: “Carbon sink capacity will be increased through enhanced afforestation efforts in both rural and urban areas. Comprehensive monitoring and evaluation of soil pollution at the city level will be undertaken, accompanied by the creation of soil pollution maps to guide agricultural planning and pinpoint sensitive areas. We will encourage sustainable agricultural practices to protect soil fertility while minimizing the environmental impacts of industrial agriculture. Furthermore, ecological integrity will be maintained through protection plans for urban wetlands and stream ecosystems, as well as by increasing natural habitats.”

Urban planning as pillar for earthquake resilience

Bursa, just like the entire Marmara Region, lies in an active earthquake zone, with the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault traversing the city and numerous smaller faults in its vicinity. In our interview, Uluay Koçak Güvener, General Coordinator of Bursa Plan, emphasized that their Environmental Master Plan also prioritizes earthquake preparedness.

Uluay Koçak Güvener, General Coordinator of Bursa Plan

“Given Bursa’s seismic vulnerability, we are developing an earthquake-resistant urban planning model for approximately 500 hectares,” Güvener explained. “This model is designed not only to ensure a safe living environment for the future but also to facilitate accessible roads and green spaces. Our ultimate aim is to create a sustainable and secure city.”

In a written statement, the municipality revealed that, as part of these initiatives, they will devise rapid-response waste management plans to effectively handle debris and waste in the aftermath of a disaster.

A long-term, comprehensive Environmental Master Plan is currently in development for Bursa. This ambitious initiative aims to tackle today’s pressing challenges while preparing the city for the 2050s. Its ultimate success will not only depend on the plan’s innovative design but also the unwavering commitment to its execution.

This article was published as part of a program supported by the UK Ankara Embassy’s Bilateral Cooperation Programme. The content of this article is solely the responsibility of P24. The UK Embassy cannot be held liable for the information provided in this article.

Tags: air pollution, climate neutral, sustainability, urban planning, water pollution