Hatay is a gateway to all things Middle Eastern

Istanbul is a deceptive first port for many Westerners coming to Turkey, according to the historian Bernard Lewis. Its exotic scenery leads them to believe that they have arrived in the Middle East. Lewis then explains how he himself entered Turkey for the first time en route from Syria, through the Turkish region of Hatay, and was startled at how different Turkey was from Middle Eastern countries. It was something I discovered for myself on a rent trip to the Turkish Hatay near the Syrian border. I sat on the flight next to an Arab Alawite resident of the city which stands as the Middle East’s gateway to the West. He  launched into a striking account of the major changes the city had undergone during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) era, and the growing tension caused by the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Arab Alawites constitute a significant part of the population in Hatay. Thanks to their knowledge of Arabic, they have benefited more than any other group in Turkey from the ties which the AKP has forged with Middle Eastern countries. My seatmate was returning from a business trip in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum  where a  native speaker of Arabic, he too had a natural advantage.
However, a natural lead which the AKP might have had in the coming 30 March municipal elections has been squandered by the crisis in Syria. Turkey’s open support for the opposition in the Syrian civil war; the hundreds of thousands of refugees who have crossed the border into Turkey; and the thousands of fundamentalist fighters who are entering Syria via Turkey have all put tremendous strain on the social fabric. While other municipalities in Turkey worry about transport or keeping the streets clean, the residents of Hatay I spoke to from all walks of life  unanimously assert that the Syrian crisis is the city’s number one problem. 

When you stroll through the areas of Hatay with high populations of Arab Alawites, you do not see AKP campaign buses, banners, or election posters. These areas are dominated by parties of the left, particularly the CHP. This explains the CHP’s strategic choice of Lütfü Savaş as a candidate. Savaş, whose origins are in the MHP, has served as Mayor of Hatay for five years, having been picked by the AKP in 2009. Thus, the CHP hopes to win the election by building upon the nearly 40% of the vote which it will receive from Arab Alawites combined with the votes which Savaş attracts from other groups. The CHP’s Hatay manoeuvre is in accordance with its nationwide strategy of moving towards the centre and nominating centre-right candidates in critical cities.

The AKP  has nominated former Minister of Justice Sadullah Ergin, who has origins in the religiously conservative  Milli Görüş (National Vision) movement. The party is hoping that Hatay can escape  the fallout from the nation-wide corruption crisis but this means that playing the central government trump card as a former cabinet minister is less effective. Saying that “if I am elected Mayor, you will have the support of the central government” may not be the powerful message it once was.

The government has sided with the opposition to Bashar al-Assad without taking into account how this plays  at home and in Hatay it might just cost them the election. For the first time in many years, Arab Alawites are clearly intending to vote as a block for parties opposing the AKP. CHP members and local journalists alike claim that during his election campaign, Ergin has used language like, “If the CHP wins, they will hang Assad’s flag in the center of Antakya.” The AKP’s strategy has been to consolidate its own electorate by heightening political tension, a strategy whose success will be revealed on polling day.

The MHP candidate is an important politician who served as Mayor of İskenderun between 1994 and 2009. Though his personal votes and personal following will increase the MHP’s share of the vote, it will be difficult for him to win this time. However, it does appear that he will be able to eat into votes which in previous years had gone to the AK .When one considers that residents of rural districts will be casting votes for mayor for the first time (as part of the greater metropolitan municipality), it should come as no surprise if the MHP gains as much as 25% of the vote.

In short, as the Middle East’s gateway to the West, Hatay cannot escape the rising sectarian conflicts in the region. As a result, it is bracing itself for an election which will be affected by dynamics that go far beyond local issues.     

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