The fortresses of Political Islam are holding strong

Don’t expect any surprises in the Central Anatolian city of Konya on March 30^th. This was the constituency of Necmettin Erbakan – the founder of political Islam in Turkey – when he first entered parliament in the 1969. The cause he started has, since then, taken even deeper root even if his actual legacy has been usurped by the Justice and Development Party (AKP).  The AKP has consolidated its hold on the city at every subsequent election since its own founding in 2002. By 2011 it polled an extraordinary 70% of the vote. 
At the same time it would be a mistake to write off the National Action Party (MHP). They may not have a chance of capturing the Greater Municipality but they are contenders in several boroughs, building on their 2009 successes in districts like Ereğli and Seydişehir. The more conservative Felicity Party (SP), the successor to Erbakan’s party, is a shadow of former self. At its last rally, the SP was only able to muster a few thousand people, a far smaller turnout than had been anticipated.   
Nearby Kayseri, home to AKP co-founder President Abdullah Gül, is another AKP stronghold where the party scored 65% of the vote at the 2011 general election. The incumbent is Mehmet Özhaseki, who has been mayor since 1994. However, the province of Kayseri is also one of the bastions of Fethullah Gülen’s movement, known as the Cemaat (Community) which has been in open conflict with the government since the corruption scandal broke mid December 2013. The Cemaat has a university in Kayseri, and 60% of private schools there are under its control. Boydak Holding, one of the most influential players in local industry, is also a prominent affiliate of the Cemaat. In the Kayseri elections, it appears that members of the Cemaat, as well as those who are angered by the recent allegations of corruption, will give their support to the MHP, which runs second after the AKP. By nominating a governmental official with a successful record of combating corruption, the MHP is sending a message to Kayseri voters that its own politics are above board. Though the MHP’s share of the vote – currently in the 20-30% range – might rise substantially, it would be a serious upset were it to win.
Konya and Kayseri  are the home to the Anatolian Tigers–  a new generation of conservative industrialist. Central Anatolia’s economic growth has not been matched by improvements in civic amenities. Cultural facilities do not begin to match those in the West of Turkey. Although there are over 80,000 university students in Konya, and over 60,000 in Kayseri, those who come from outside to study constantly complain about the paucity of social life. In addition, there are other serious problems, the result of unplanned urbanization where multi-storeyed construction has crowded out green spaces.    
Despite all these problems, parties of the right receive a total of 90% of the vote in both Konya and Kayseri. Not surprisingly Prime Minister Erdoğan will be holding the last two rallies of his campaign in these two strongholds on March 28^th, both as a show of strength, and as a means of boosting party morale.  
But it was not always thus. In the 1970s, the left received more than 30% of the vote in Konya and Kayseri, and the Sosyal Demokrat Halkçı Parti (Social Democratic Populist Party) won the municipal elections in Kayseri in 1989. The current left of centre Republican People’s Party (CHP) clearly needs to engage in some serious self-criticism that it has completely abandoned the field.  
 

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