Roller coaster time for South Korea
One country that has been watching the whole situation with glee, however, is North Korea; the country’s state news described the situation as “chaos” and called South Korea a “fascist dictatorship”
08.01.2025
In a month’s time, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol jettisoned from declaring martial law to being impeached, and now he besieged himself to the Presidential Palace for avoiding imprisonment. These are bizarre developments for any country-let alone a full-fledged, developed democracy like South Korea.
How did things get to this point ?
Before his election as president, Yoon was a prosecutor who was appointed the top prosecutor of Seoul by liberal President Moon Jae-in. He played a key role in the prosecutions of former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, who are both conservatives. In 2019, Moon appointed Yoon to be South Korea’s prosecutor general. Yoon quickly turned against the liberals as prosecutor general, however, opening investigations against Minister of Justice Cho Kuk due to various scandals, quickly making him a popular figure among the conservative camp.
In 2021, Yoon resigned as prosecutor general and announced his candidacy for the 2022 presidential election. Yoon later joined the People Power Party (PPP), the main iteration of conservatives in the country, and won the presidential primaries of the party. During his presidential campaign, Yoon ran against liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, and ran a divisive campaign where he, among other things, promised to close down the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family and made antifeminist remarks. In the end, Yoon triumphed against Lee in what was the closest presidential election in South Korean history.
Haunted by poor approval
Yoon’s presidency suffered from very poor approval ratings from the very beginning; opinion polls show that his approval was consistently stuck in the low thirties throughout his tenure. In one of his first moves, he moved the presidential office from the Blue House to the Ministry of Defense building. During his presidency, he attempted to raise South Korea’s maximum working hours from 52 to 69, walked back from efforts to abolish the Gender Equality Ministry, and oversaw the response to the Halloween crowd crush in Seoul in 2022. As the country’s parliament was under the control of the opposition Democratic Party, Yoon was largely unsuccessful in making large changes to policy.
In regard to foreign policy, Yoon heralded a dramatic reverse from his predecessor in regarding Japan, long a target of left-wing and nationalist forces in South Korea. While President Moon pursued a more antagonistic policy with Japan, Yoon pursued closer relations, meeting many times with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and dropping claims of direct compensation from the Japanese government and companies for victims of forced labor due to World War 2. His efforts to fix relations were backed by the United States, a key ally of both nations; in 2023, Yoon and Kishida met with US President Joe Biden at Camp David, where they signed a pact calling for closer security ties. Though Yoon pursued a relatively tougher line on China, his administration did not dramatically depart from his predecessor in many aspects.
In contrast, Yoon pursued a hardline policy towards North Korea, presiding over a serious deterioration of ties. North Korea ratcheted up testing of missiles, while in response, South Korea scrapped several agreements designed to ease tensions signed under President Moon, under whom in which there was a brief period of rapprochement. Yoon also announced a “freedom-based unification” policy, which called for a “unified Republic of Korea”, that is, a Korea reunified under the South Korean government, and appointed North Korea hardliners in key positions, including the Unification Ministry. There was no love lost with North Korea, which frequently called Yoon a “puppet” of the United States in its state media.
Marred by scandals and gaffes
Yoon’s presidency also buckled under the weight of many scandals and gaffes. In 2022, he came under fire after he was caught in hot mic referring to members of the US Congress as “dumbasses”; his party sued local broadcaster MBC for defamation for making the report. His wife Kim Keon-hee has also come under extensive scrutiny due to various scandals, especially over the acceptance of a $2,200 Dior handbag as a gift from a South Korea-born American pastor, allegedly breaking the country’s anti corruption laws.
All his issues seemed to come in the limelight in early 2024, where his party was soundly defeated in legislative elections, with the opposition keeping their wide majority. This effectively relegated Yoon to a lame duck status for his entire term, while anchoring Lee, who had become the formal leader of the Democratic Party and a member of the National Assembly after the 2022 presidential election, as a very likely contender for the next presidential election. Lee also wasn’t without challenges, however; he was convicted on charges of violating the election law in November 2024, which could potentially banning from the presidential election if the ruling is upheld.
Martial law shock
However, suddenly on 3 December at 22:23 Korean time, Yoon started an emergency address to the nation, declaring martial law just a few minutes later. According to later reports, Yoon planned the declaration of martial law with his childhood friend and Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun. Reports also alleged Yoon and military officials close to him had been trying to escalate tensions with North Korea to provoke a crisis and thus justify a martial law. Shortly before Yoon’s declaration on December 3, he met with his cabinet to announce the decision; the Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was blindsided with the martial law decision, while a majority of his cabinet was opposed. Yoon nevertheless persisted.
During the emergency address, Yoon accused the opposition’s “legislative dictatorship” of paralyzing state governance, calling the National Assembly a “den of criminals” which are “plotting the paralysis of the judicial and executive systems of the nation and the subversion of the liberal democratic system”. He declared martial law to “guard the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces” and “eradicate” the “pro North anti-state forces” and “safeguard the liberal constitutional order”.
Yoon appointed Army Chief of Staff Park An-su as martial law commander, who issued a decree immediately banning all political activities, including of the National Assembly, of political parties, and rallies and demonstrations, prohibiting “fake news”, and bringing all media and publications under the Martial Law Command. Troops raided the National Election Commission, which Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun claimed was necessary to investigate “alleged voter fraud” (a popular conspiracy theory among the far-right).
The military furthermore tried to take control of the National Assembly building. In reaction, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik immediately announced he would a plenary session to revoke the martial law. All political parties opposed the martial law, including Yoon’s own party, the PPP. Lee lambasted Yoon was “no longer the president of South Korea”, calling for protests at the National Assembly. Though the police barricaded the entrance to the National Assembly, legislators managed to make their way in. The military tried to gain entrance to the main session hall but were blocked by the staff. Eventually, enough legislators were able to meet; 190 legislators out of 300 met in the legislative hall on early 4 December, unanimously agreeing to lift martial law; 18 were members of the PPP. After the vote, soldiers started withdrawing; Yoon later made a public statement lifting the martial law just five hours after he implemented it.
Further and further drama unfolds
Yoon’s martial law declaration triggered a large crisis; all parties at the parliament bar the PPP immediately filed a motion to impeach him. Defense Minister Kim resigned on 5 December and was arrested on 8 December; he unsuccessfully tried to commit suicide on 10 December. On 7 December, Yoon issued a public apology for his actions and promised there would not be a second martial law. On the same day, the impeachment motion was not able to pass as all but two of the 107 PPP lawmakers left the vote; the impeachment needs 200 out of 300 votes to pass. Nevertheless, the legislature voted to create a special counsel on investigating Yoon on charges of treason and insurrection on 10 December; 210 legislators, including 23 PPP members, voted in favor.
On 12 December, the Democratic Party filed a second motion to impeach; on 14 December, the vote began. This time, the PPP did not stage a boycott and allowed its members as they wish, though the party formally remained in opposition to it. In the end 204 members voted in favor of impeachment, including 12 members of the PPP; 85 voted against impeachment. Shortly afterwards, Yoon was immediately suspended from his political powers (though he formally remains in office), while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo became the acting president.
The crisis did not end there, however. According to the constitution, the case now goes to the Constitutional Court, which will either agree to remove him from the presidency, thus initiating a new election, or dismiss the cases, ending Yoon’s suspension. Though it officially has 180 days to reach a decision, a decision is expected to come much sooner. Though the court normally has nine members and is required to have seven to begin hearings, it currently has six. Acting President Han Duck-soo refused to appoint the vacant judges, and also refused to promulgate two special counsel bills to investigate Yoon and his wife, saying those decisions would not be consistent with his presidency being an acting one.
In reaction, the Democratic Party accused him of dragging out the impeachment process as long as possible. A quick resolution to the impeachment process is also in the Democratic Party’s interests; Lee remains under investigation about a case of him violating the Election Act, which he says is politically motivated. He was convicted in November 2024, and he could be barred from elections if the conviction is upheld. The Democratic Party-led National Assembly formally voted to impeach Han on 27 December 2024. National Speaker Assembly Woo Won-shik said that since Han was a cabinet minister, he could be impeached by a simple majority (as opposed to a two-thirds majority needed for the president). The impeachment passed by a 192 vote; all members of the PPP boycotted the vote. Afterwards, deputy prime minister and minister of economy and finance Choi Sang-mok became both the acting prime minister and the acting president. Choi later accepted the opposition demand to appoint the vacant judges.
Enter the arrest warrant
A few days later, the saga took another twist. In addition to the impeachment process, Yoon is under investigation by the police due to charges of insurrection, which does not have presidential immunity and has a maximum penalty of death sentence (though South Korea has not executed anyone since 1998). The police issued an arrest warrant for Yoon on 30 December after he refused to attend any of the summons by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO). On 3 January 2025, the South Korean police tried to arrest Yoon in the official presidential residence. However, the Presidential Security Service blocked the police from entering. Additionally, members of Yoon’s legal team entered the residence to mount legal challenges against the arrest warrant. The CIO eventually relented, dropping the execution of the arrest warrant. Yoon also rallied supporters, a few thousand of whom started protests waving American and South Korean flags and promising to protect the impeached president.
Impasse continues…
What will happen now? The situation in South Korea has grown increasingly chaotic with no end in sight. No matter what happens, though, one thing is certain; this has been a great blow to the conservative movement, which was still reeling from President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2016. Yoon’s approval, already low, has dropped to extreme lows with over 80 percent of the country disapproving of him after martial law. Polls also show the popularity of the PPP has gone down, while its rival Democratic Party has gained ground. Lee Jae-myung now seems in pole position to win the presidential elections, which many expect to come soon with Yoon’s removal. Lee, a left-wing politician who champions reconciliation with North Korea, would in many ways reflect a dramatic change from Yoon. Domestically, Lee promotes measures such as universal basic income and has been compared to politicians such as Bernie Sanders for his progressive style.
In regard to foreign policy, he argues for closer ties with China, and has accused Yoon of provoking China. He also supports a more adversarial position towards Japan, and a close but cautious relationship with the U.S. This might mean good news for China and headaches for the U.S. and Japan, who have been painstakingly building a trilateral cooperation arrangement between the three nations as a deterrent against China, which could now unravel. One country that has been watching the whole situation with glee, however, is North Korea; the country’s state news described the situation as “chaos” and called South Korea a “fascist dictatorship”.